One camp is engulfed in the paranoia fostered by the perceived (and in a way, very real) promise of AI to take jobs and fast. The other camp salivates at this very prospect – a piece of technology that is at least 10 times smarter, faster, more reliable, cheaper and less inclined to complain than the traditional human worker, a financially tantalising prospect. Then there are those in the middle, torn between the excitement of unimaginable efficiency gains and the trepidation inevitably associated with the next big economic revolution.

While it may seem as though AI is a heaven-sent tool destined to change the way we live forever, the emergence of such a revolutionary technology is not unprecedented.

The First Agricultural Revolution (10,000 - 4,000 BC)

This revolution encompassed the shift from hunter-gatherer societies to settled agricultural communities. The advent of agriculture displaced the practice of nomadic peoples, resulting in the establishment of settlements and large food surpluses, enabling rapid population growth. If measured in 4,000 BC, GDP would have been primarily driven by agriculture – innovative, efficient, and advanced technology.

The Industrial Revolution (Late 18th Century - 19th Century)

Originating in Great Britain, the Industrial Revolution saw the rise of machine-driven manufacturing, a shift to factory labour, and the migration of the population from rural to urban living. Britain’s share of employment in agriculture fell from 30% in 1800 to around 5% in 1900 (note: prior to 1800, agricultural employment had been well above 50%). GDP composition shifted from agriculture to the textiles, iron and steel manufacturing, mining, railways, and trade.

The Dot-com Revolution (or Dot-com Bubble) (late 1990s - early 2000s)

The Dot-com bubble refers to the period of exponential technology growth and adoption. From 1990 - 2000, US employment in the technology sector grew over 50%. The rise of internet technology displaced traditional manufacturing work in favour of a service-based economy where businesses rapidly adopted software and technology advancements it to increase efficiency. Venture capital investment in internet-related firms rose from US$3 billion in 1995 to US$100 billion in 2000. The Nasdaq Composite Index quadrupled in this five-year period, with the majority of growth attributed to technology companies. GDP composition again altered to reflect the new paradigm of a service-based economy built on information technology, telecommunications, and finance.

Note: the “Dot-com Bubble” derives its name from the infamous stock market crash beginning in 2000 and ending in 2002 where the 78% of the Nasdaq’s value was eroded (see below) - effectively losing all Dot-com induced gains of the previous 5 years. This does not mean the technology was bad, since then we’ve seen huge increases in the efficiency, effectiveness and adoption of internet related technologies (enter the iPhone). It just means Wall St got a little overexcited. Sound familiar?

There have been many revolutions before and between those mentioned – each one laying the foundation for the next. See the natural progression from food security (agriculture) and the establishment of communities to industrialisation, where mass production and mechanisation transformed economies, societies, and global trade. As the industrial revolution accelerated, it led to the rise of urbanisation, the birth of the consumer economy, and the development of financial markets. This laid the groundwork for the information revolution, where digital technologies reshaped industries and labour markets, bringing about the rise of the service-based economy and the dot-com bubble.

Another important consideration is that even after a revolution, the technology that is displaced does not stop evolving in its own right. For instance, agriculture has undergone transformative development since the First Agricultural Revolution, including the introduction of the Norfolk four-course rotation strategy (evident in the mid-18th Century), and then, of course, the genetic modification (GMO) of crops (the first GMO crop sown in Australia occurred in 1998).

AI is the natural evolution of the Dot-com and internet revolution, building on the digital infrastructure that reshaped our world just a few decades ago. Potentially as profound as the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the internet, AI promises to have an impact on our economies and daily lives, it is just a question of how exactly.

While there will undoubtedly be a period of adjustment as industries and job markets shift, history has shown that these disruptions often lead to greater overall prosperity in terms of quality of life and GDP/capita. In the long run, we may find ourselves with more time to focus on high-value work, creativity, and personal fulfilment, as AI takes on repetitive tasks and enhances our productivity. Just as past revolutions have made society more efficient, the AI revolution holds the promise of improving our quality of life, opening doors to new opportunities, and allowing us to thrive in ways we can only begin to imagine.

Alternatively, we may all be forced into unemployment, destined to a life of subservience to our robot masters. Not sure.

Full disclosure: I am currently working at an AI and Automation company that has generated unbelievable efficiencies for the businesses we have worked with. Shoot me an email if you’d like to have a chat about what we can do for your business/division.